The conservative radio host leads all other candidates, but a majority will have to reject the incumbent first.
Why shouldn’t a conservative Republican like Larry Elder be leading the race to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom?
Mr. Elder is an attorney, bestselling author, documentary filmmaker and successful talk-radio host who was born and raised in Los Angeles. True, he’s an amateur when it comes to electoral politics, but look at what the professionals like Mr. Newsom, a liberal Democrat, have done to the most populous state.
Crime has climbed in California’s largest cities, while left-wing district attorneys compete to determine who can prosecute the fewest miscreants. The state’s homelessness rate is third highest in the country after Hawaii and New York, and it’s rising, which might have something to do with heavy-handed zoning restrictions and environmental regulations that limit the construction of affordable housing. Californians pay energy bills that are significantly higher than the national average and well above what customers pay in neighboring states like Oregon. Yet millions of residents experienced rolling blackouts in 2019 when a state utility purposely cut off power to avoid wildfires caused by outdated electric lines. And that’s what life was like in this progressive Eden before the pandemic.
Mr. Elder told me in an interview this week that the state’s over-the-top Covid response and the governor’s aristocratic personal behavior probably did more than anything else to put his job in jeopardy. In a CNN interview last year, Mr. Newsom implied that his children, who attend private school, were still learning remotely. In reality, they had returned to in-person instruction months earlier, while the public schools remained closed in deference to the state’s powerful teachers unions.
Nor has Mr. Newsom been able to live down his infamous private dinner at a fancy French restaurant in defiance of his own Covid restrictions, Mr. Elder said. “People are angry that the state was shut down in such a severe way during the pandemic while this man was sitting in a restaurant with lobbyists and healthcare professionals—violating the very mandates they wrote.” It wasn’t the only example of the rules not applying to the governor, said Mr. Elder. Mr. Newsom’s own winery in Napa County remained open last year while he ordered other wineries and businesses across the state to close their indoor operations.
Mr. Newsom won a decisive victory in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote over Republican John Cox. But California happens to be one of 19 states that allows voters to change their mind and remove an elected official—for any reason—before his term ends. In July, California’s secretary of state certified that petitioners had met the signature threshold for triggering a recall election, and voters will head to the polls on Sept. 14.
The ballot will ask two questions: Should Mr. Newsom be recalled and, if so, who should replace him? For the recall to succeed, a majority of voters must support it, but any would-be successor to the governor needs only a plurality. When Californians recalled Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in 2003, they replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger, who won 48.6% of the vote.
This election doesn’t have that kind of star power, but it does have Mr. Elder, who says that he’s known well enough throughout the state to win support from people who don’t traditionally vote Republican. “I’ve been on the air 27 years,” he said. “I’m on in every major market, from Sacramento down to San Diego and everywhere in between. And people know me from talking about these issues and writing about these issues for decades.”
Californians are almost evenly split on replacing Mr. Newsom. A survey released Tuesday by the Los Angeles Times and the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that 47% of likely voters support recalling the governor, while 50% say he should stay, a difference that is almost within the poll’s margin of error. Last week, an Emerson College/Nexstar survey reported a similar result, with 43% of respondents saying they would recall Mr. Newsom, and 48% saying they would keep him in office.
In both polls, however, Mr. Elder is the leading choice among dozens of candidates vying to replace the governor. His support was at 18% in the Times poll and 16% in the Emerson survey. His closest rivals, who include Mr. Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner, are polling no better than 10%.
Still, Mr. Elder remains a long shot. No prominent Democrat is challenging Mr. Newsom. The governor has a sizable war chest, and registered Democrats in California outnumber Republicans by almost 2 to 1. Yet even if the governor does survive, his days in office may be numbered. “The Governor faces trouble ahead,” Emerson reports. “A clear majority (58%) of voters said regardless of the recall, they believe it is time to elect a new Governor in the 2022 election.”
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Jason L. Riley is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a columnist at The Wall Street Journal, and a Fox News commentator. Follow him on Twitter here.
This piece originally appeared in The Wall Street Journal