Your current web browser is outdated. For best viewing experience, please consider upgrading to the latest version.

Contact

Send a question or comment using the form below. This message may be routed through support staff.

Email Article

ERROR
Main Error Mesage Here
More detailed message would go here to provide context for the user and how to proceed
ERROR
Main Error Mesage Here
More detailed message would go here to provide context for the user and how to proceed
search DONATE
Close Nav

The Physics Limits of Green Dreams

back to top
commentary

The Physics Limits of Green Dreams

Hart Energy December 17, 2019
Energy & EnvironmentClimateTechnology / Infrastructure

A scientific “miracle” will have to happen in order for the world to achieve a new energy economy.

Forecasts are now commonly made, often rhetorically and without evidence, that we should expect to see a rapid decline in future costs for wind/solar/battery technologies that continue the gains already achieved. The first two decades of commercialization, after the 1980s, saw a greater than tenfold reduction in cost of solar and wind hardware. But the path for further improvements won’t emulate the past. Instead, it now follows what mathematics call an asymptote; or, put in economic terms, improvements are subject to a law of diminish­ing returns where every incremental gain yields less progress than in the past (Figure 1).

Continue reading the entire piece here at Hart Energy (paywall)

______________________

Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering, and author of the recent report, “The ‘New Energy Economy’: An Exercise in Magical Thinking.” Follow him on Twitter here.

Photo by narvikk/iStock

Saved!
Close