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Rethinking Development Report
No. 2  June 2005


Up From the Ruins: Why Rezoning New York City’s Manufacturing Areas for Housing Makes Sense

Notes

  1. As reported on a NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) basis, by the New York State Department of Labor through December 2004. On a SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) basis, which terminated with 2002 data, manufacturing jobs in New York City exceeded 535,000 in 1975.
  2. Forecasts of the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) are the official forecasts required for all federally funded transportation investment-planning purposes in the region. As such, they are adopted by NYMTC members, including federal, state, and local government agencies, and contained in the Regional Transportation Plan. The current forecasts (shown) are reported in the 2005 Regional Transportation Plan.
  3. In addition to growth, the population gain includes an increase in Census Bureau coverage as the city’s undercount was lessened by the addition of previously excluded households from the Master Address File.
  4. To meet household formation rates, 184,000 housing units must be built between 2005 and 2015, and 298,100 must be built between 2015 and 2025. To provide more choice and quality, 250,200 housing units must be built between 2005 and 2015, and 364,200 housing units must be built between 2015 and 2025. At 1 percent, the rate of dilapidation is quite low in New York City’s housing stock, but at 2.7 percent, the vacancy rate is well below the 6 percent norm for clearing markets and providing greater housing choice.
  5. Based on New York City Zoning Handbook maximum FARs by zoning code, assuming that all allowances and bonuses apply for the 7,230 acres of vacant R-zoned land.
  6. New York State Department of Labor, ES-202 data reported on an SIC basis. Industrial jobs were defined as manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation, communications and public utilities, and other industrial.
  7. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
  8. Sherman Creek Interagency Working Group, Sherman Creek Planning Initiative, 2004.
  9. Manhattan borough president Virginia Field’s office, Waterfront Revitalization and Access Plan, 1995. Metropolitan Waterfront Alliance, “Waterfront Issues: NYC Council District 10,” 2001.
  10. Bronx borough president Adolfo Carrion’s office, Bronx Waterfront Plan, 2004.
  11. New York State Department of Labor, ES-202 data reported on an SIC basis. See n. 6 above for definition of industrial jobs.
  12. Senator Schumer Commission, Group of 30 Report, 2002.
  13. Commercial and office buildings constitute the next most prominent use in Dutch Kills, at 4.2 million square feet, but industrial land is more intensely developed than office uses, built at an average 1.6 FAR (floor area ratio). Transportation and utility uses and parking facilities add another 2.5 million square feet of floor space, for a combined 65 percent industrial building capacity in the study area.
  14. New York State Department of Labor, ES-202 data reported on an SIC basis. See n. 6 above for definition of industrial jobs.
  15. New York City Department of City Planning, A New Framework for Development of Long Island City, 1993.
  16. Regional Plan Association, First Regional Plan, Municipal Arts Society, 1976. The earlier proposals included an early Regional Plan Association advocacy for decking over the Sunnyside Yards and a subsequent call by the Municipal Arts Society for connecting streets through the yards.
  17. FAR of 2.0.
  18. Hunter College Urban Planning Studio, Making Connections: A New Comprehensive Plan for Dutch Kills, 2003.
  19. New York State Department of Labor, ES-202 data reported on an SIC basis. See n. 6 above for definition of industrial jobs.
  20. Brooklyn Community Board 6, Red Hook: A Plan for Community Regeneration, 1996.
  21. The plan is sponsored by the Gowanus Canal Community Development Corporation, with technical services provided by the Columbia University Urban Design Studio and private planning, engineering, and architectural consultants (Ferrandino & Associates, Inc., Ehrenkrantz Eckstut & Kuhn Architects, Langan Engineering & Environmental Services, ACP-Visioning and Planning, Ltd.).
  22. New York State Department of Labor, ES-202 data reported on an SIC basis. See n. 6 above for definition of industrial jobs.
  23. North Shore Waterfront Greenbelt, Waterfront Revitalization and Access Plan, 1989.

 


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TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Executive Summary

About the Authors

The Decline of Manufacturing

Chart 1  The Decline of Industrial Employment in New York City, 1990-2004

Table 1  Manufacturing Employment, Past and Forecasted, in the New York Urban Region, 1990-2025 (000s of jobs)

Table 2  Industrial Employment in New York City, 1990-2004 (in 000s of annual average jobs)

The Demand for Housing

Chart 2  The Rise in Housing Construction Authorizations in New York City, 1990-2004

Table 3  Resident Population, Households, and Housing-Unit Demand in New York City, Past and Forecasted, 1990-2025 (in 000s)

Case Studies of Redevelopment Potential

Sherman Creek/Inwood, Manhattan

Bronx Terminal Market to Bruckner South Expansion, Bronx

Dutch Kills, Queens

Red Hook/Gowanus Canal Area, Brooklyn

North Shore, Staten Island

Conclusion

Illustrative Development Potential

Table 4 Illustrative Housing Yield by Study Area

Housing Yield

Economic and Fiscal Impact

Table 5  Illustrative Housing Values and Property Taxes of Study Area Sites

Net Benefit to the New York City Economy

Notes

APPENDIX

Map 1 Inwood/Sherman Creek Study Area

Map 2 Bronx Terminal Market/Bruckner South Study Area

Map 3 Dutch Kills Study Area

Map 4 Gowanus/Red Hook Study Area

Map 5 North Shore Staten Island Study Area

Map 6 Sherman Creek Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

Map 7 Bronx Terminal Market/Bruckner South Expansion Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

Map 8 Dutch Kills Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

Map 9 Red Hook Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

Map 10 Gowanus Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

Map 11 North Shore Study Area: Illustrative Housing Development Potential

 


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