Putin Isn't Rooting for President Trump

Russians will be hit hard in the wallet if Republicans follow through on their fracking plans.

What does Vladimir Putin want? Cybersecurity experts are pointing to Russian hackers for the embarrassing leak of some 20,000 Democratic National Committee emails, leading some to posit that Putin tilts towards Trump.

That would be interesting. Trump stands opposed to Putin’s interests on one of the most significant geopolitical divides between Russia and America: fracking.

Start with the singular fact that Russia is for all practical purposes an economic monoculture. Half of the Russian GDP and 70% of revenues come from exports of oil and natural gas. The price of oil is the single most important factor for Russia’s economy, as is any potential loss of markets to competition. And oil revenues are needed to fund expensive foreign adventurism, whether in the Ukraine or Syria.

Now consider the America energy reality: Oil and gas account for well below 10% of U.S. GDP and less than 10% of the trade deficit. Meanwhile, America’s shale revolution doubled U.S. oil and gas production in under a decade — an unprecedented gain in output in the history of the oil industry — vaulting America to the position of number one world producer. Thousands of American shale frackers were the principal reason for the global oil and gas supply glut and consequent collapse in prices.

Lower prices have been hard on all producers. But lower priced oil has devastated the Russian economy, costing that nation about $140 billion a year in lost revenues and draining $35 billion from Russia’s two sovereign-wealth funds. If prices stay low and Russia continues its current spending its sovereign-wealth funds will dry up in about two years. The future direction of America’s oil (and natural gas) policy is critical to Russia.

And consider another policy intersection. Money aside, Russia derives a lot of its prestige and geopolitical influence because it’s a major supplier of a vital product for many nations. It bears noting that oil fuels 95% of global transportation and trade. And 60% of the world’s GDP is linked to inter-regional trade. Today, over half of Russian oil exports go to Europe: Russia accounts for 96% of Poland’s oil, for instance. And Russia recently surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest supplier. To paraphrase: Russia punches above its weight. America has upset the Russian (and OPEC) geopolitical status quo by emerging with potential as a significant oil and gas exporter.

The geopolitical implications of expanding U.S. shale capabilities are not subtle. As Senator Lisa Murkowski, chairman of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee, recently observed: “Many U.S. allies and trading partners are interested in purchasing American oil to diversify away from Russia (and) Iran.”

No one can read Putin’s mind. But it’s hard to square the idea of Putin’s support for Trump with “the Donald’s” bullishness on shale production.  In truth, it’s hard for anyone to know what policies either candidate would actually implement in 2017. Sure, Trump’s campaign speeches have been pro-shale and Clinton’s have been tepid at best. But there is a long history of policy surprises once a president takes office. Whole essays have been devoted to the misalignment between campaign rhetoric and subsequent policies with respect to energy and much else.

Putin’s analysts are doubtless as confused by the state of America’s electorate as are ours. However, whichever way the election goes in November, he’s not likely to be happy.

This piece originally appeared in USA Today

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Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Follow him on Twitter here.

This piece originally appeared in USA Today