Poll - April 15-19 and 22, 2007
Conducted by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners
Released by the Manhattan Institute and the National Immigration Forum
This nationwide study conducted in April 2007 found that likely voters
nationwide continued to express strong support for immigration reform.
Specifically, 73 percent found it "extremely" or "very" important for Congress
to pass an immigration overhaul in 2007, up more than 10 points from the year
before. More than three quarters of those surveyed supported a comprehensive
reform package that included a path to citizenship—and this strong support,
which crossed ethnic and demographic lines, was equally deep among Republicans
and Democrats. Only a minority of voters considered a path to citizenship to
be "amnesty," and when asked if they would rather see Congress do nothing or
pass a bill that some people would consider amnesty, a full 64 percent wanted
Congress to act. Likely voters also supported enforcement triggers and
assimilation programs. Deportation of all illegal immigrants was opposed by
65 percent and seen as impossible by 85 percent. And in the event that no
reform were passed in 2007, most voters were ready to blame all incumbents
in Washington—both parties and the president equally.
Executive summary
Full poll results
Press Conference [MP3]
Media Coverage: Boston Globe, Arizona Republic, New York Daily News, US News and World Report
* * *
POLL - November 3-6 2006
Conducted by The Tarrance Group
Released by the Manhattan Institute and the National
Immigration Forum
Nationwide survey of 1200 likely voters, with an oversample of
voters in Arizona, Pennsylvania and contested congressional districts
This nationwide survey conducted the weekend before the 2006 midterms
tested the conventional wisdom that immigration would be a wedge issue, driving
voters to the polls. In fact, despite considerable voter interest in immigration, most
voters said it would not determine their vote: just 11 percent of likely voters selected
it as the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress. The
survey also found a majority in favor of comprehensive immigration
reform—among likely voters, 68 percent reject the label amnesty for a program
that allows illegal immigrants to earn citizenship by continuing to work
and live crime-free, paying a fine, paying back taxes and learning
English—and a majority expects Congress to pass a comprehensive
package in 2007.
Executive summary
Full poll results
Press Conference [MP3]
* * *
PRESS EVENT - July 25, 2006
Press conference at the National Press Club
with simultaneous telephonic call in
David Brooks of the New York Times, Mort Kondracke
of Fox News, Brian Nienaber of Tarrance, Frank
Sharry and Tamar Jacoby discuss recent polling
and the politics of immigration.
Media coverage: Roll
Call
* * *
POLL - July 9-13, 2006
Conducted by The Tarrance Group and Lake
Research Partners
Released by the Manhattan Institute and
the National Immigration Forum
Nationwide survey of 1000 likely voters,
with an oversample of 100 Hispanic voters
A poll of likely voters designed to probe their
attitudes toward immigration reform. Key findings:
78 percent of voters, 78 percent of Republicans
and 77 percent of conservatives support reform
that increases border security, enacts tougher
penalties on employers, creates a temporary
worker program and allows illegal immigrants
already here to earn citizenship by working,
paying taxes, learning English and waiting their
turn behind people waiting for visas in their
home countries. A full 73 percent would be more
likely to support a candidate who endorsed this
position, and a solid majority (54 percent)
wants Congress to pass reform legislation this
year even if it includes measures they do not
like such as "amnesty."
Executive
summary
Full
poll results
Media coverage: San
Francisco Chronicle, Houston Chronicle
and San Diego Union-Tribune.
* * *
POLL - June 12-15, 2006
Conducted by The Tarrance Group
Released by the Manhattan Institute
Nationwide survey of 800 likely Republican
voters
A poll of likely Republican voters designed
to probe how important they felt it was for
Congress to tackle the immigration issue this
year. Key finding: 72 percent said it is extremely
or very important that Congress solve the problem
before November. In keeping with previous soundings,
the poll also found that 75 percent of Republican
voters support a comprehensive solution that
includes tougher enforcement, more worker visas
and a path to citizenship for the illegal immigrants
already here. Finally, given the choice between
doing nothing and doing something that includes
measures they do not like, such as "amnesty,"
a majority (53 percent) preferred that Congress
pass something.
Executive
summary
Full
poll results
Press event: June 22, 2006, the National
Press Club, Brian Nienaber of Tarrance and Tamar
Jacoby.
Media coverage: New York Times,
Los
Angeles Times, Orange
County Register, Washington
Post, Dallas Morning News, Arizona
Republic and Chicago Tribune.
* * *
PRESS EVENT - April 20, 2006
Press conference on the Hill with simultaneous
telephonic call-in
Ed Goeas of Tarrance, David Mermin of Lake
Research, Sergio Bendixen of Bendixen &
Associates, Frank Sharry and Tamar Jacoby discuss
trends in recent polling, our own and also surveys
by major media outlets.
Tarrance-Lake
presentation
Bendixen
& Associates presentation
Media coverage: Christian
Science Monitor, Council
on Foreign Relations "Online Debate"
and Weekly
Standard.
* * *
POLL - March 26-28, 2006
Conducted by The Tarrance Group and Lake
Research Partners
Released by the Manhattan Institute and
the National Immigration Forum
Nationwide survey of 1,010 likely voters
Following up on the focus groups in Cleveland
and Dallas, we surveyed attitudes toward two
possible models for future immigration: a temporary
guest worker program or a more traditional American
melting pot or citizenship model. Key findings:
71 percent of those polled prefer a temporary
worker program that includes a path to citizenship
over one that would permanently deny foreign
workers the chance to become Americans. The
survey also found the 64 percent of those polled
would be likely to vote for a candidate with
whom they agreed on most issues, but "really
disagreed with" on immigration.
Executive
summary
Full
poll results
Press event: March 31, 2006, Capitol
Hill, Ed Goeas of Tarrance, Celinda Lake of
Lake Research, Frank Sharry, Tamar Jacoby.
Media coverage: Houston
Chronicle, Seattle
Post-Intelligencer, New York Daily
News and San Antonio Express-News.
* * *
FOCUS GROUPS - March 2006
Conducted by The Tarrance Group and Lake
Research Partners
Released by the Manhattan Institute and
the National Immigration Forum
Four focus groups in Dallas and Cleveland
Topic: is it preferable for immigrants coming
to the U.S. in years ahead to come as temporary
guest workers or traditional immigrants who
would be permitted, and indeed expected, to
put down roots and settle permanently in this
country? The focus groups found that voters
strongly prefer a traditional American melting-pot
or citizenship model.
Media coverage: Washington
Post, Austin American-Statesman
and Salem Statesman-Journal.
* * *
POLL - October 2- 4, 2005
Conducted by The Tarrance Group
Released by the Manhattan Institute
Nationwide survey of 800 likely Republican
voters
Following up on the focus groups in Dallas,
we probed Republican voter attitudes on what
to do about the 12 million illegal immigrants
already here. Key findings: when asked to choose
between deportation and earned legalization,
respondents preferred earned legalization by
a margin of 58 percent to 33 percent. Meanwhile,
78 percent would support an immigration plan
that combines tougher border security, increased
penalties for employers, a temporary worker
program and a path to eventual citizenship.
Executive
summary
Full
poll results
Press event: Telephonic press conference,
October 17, 2006, Ed Goeas of Tarrance and Tamar
Jacoby.
Media coverage: The
Economist, Los
Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal,
Arizona Republic, San Antonio Express-News,
Washington Times and the New York
Post.
* * *
IN-DEPTH INTERVIEW SURVEY - September 2005
Conducted by Bendixen & Associates
Released by the Manhattan Institute and
the National Immigration Forum
In-depth interviews with 233 undocumented
immigrants conducted in Spanish in three cities
(Los Angeles, Chicago and Miami)
Topic: what steps exactly would the undocumented
be prepared to take in order to regularize their
status and embark on a path to citizenship?
Key findings: given a choice, 98 percent would
prefer to be in the U.S. legally rather than
illegally. To earn legal status, they would
be willing to go to a government office and
admit their illegal status (94 percent), be
fingerprinted for a criminal background check
(96 percent), pay a fine of $1000 (91 percent),
and enroll in an English class (87 percent).
The survey also found that 90 percent of those
surveyed would become a U.S. citizen if that
were possible.
Executive
summary
Full
survey results
Media coverage: New
York Times, Los
Angeles Times and Washington Post.
FOCUS GROUPS - September 2005
Conducted by The Tarrance Group
Released by the Manhattan Institute
Two focus groups of Republican and moderate to conservative independent voters in Dallas
The discussions probed attitudes toward immigration
reform, focusing in particular on voters' preferred
solution for the estimated 12 million illegal
immigrants already living in the U.S. Key findings:
although initially extremely skeptical - eager
to drive these immigrants out of the country
by any means necessary - voters eventually grasped
that the only practical answer is allowing the
12 million to regularize their status and earn
citizenship. Indeed, when asked to craft their
own solution for the immigration problem, these
Republicans and conservative independents formulated
a plan very similar to the McCain-Kennedy legislation.
Report
Media coverage: Dallas
Morning News, Wall
Street Journal, David
Brooks on "NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
