EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

July 25, 2006

To: Interested Parties

From: Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber, The Tarrance Group
Celinda Lake and David Mermin, Lake Research Partners

Subject: Key findings from a nationwide survey of registered likely Republican voters[1]
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Overview

The five (5) major findings from this data are:

1. The political environment for the upcoming Congressional elections is somewhat negative towards incumbents. Much of this negative environment is fueled by the strongly negative views of Democratic voters and Independent voters.
2. Illegal immigration is identified as a top problem that likely voters want resolved this year. Interest in this issue and interest in a solution to this issue is driven by Republicans.
3. In testing possible solutions, a plan similar to the proposal passed by the Senate and supported by the President has notably more support than an approach that includes enforcement plus a guest workers program.
4. Hispanics are more likely to have seen statements about immigration reform that they thought were too harsh towards immigrants or Hispanics and these experiences are more likely to have had a negative impact on their support for Republican candidates.
5. There appears to be some interest among likely voters, especially Independents, to punish their Member of Congress if action is not taken on critical issues, like immigration reform, this year.

Political environment is somewhat negative

• A strong majority (62%) of likely voters believe the country is on the wrong track, including 52% who "strongly" believe this. This view is driven by strongly negative views among Democrats (90% wrong track), Independents (68% wrong track), and swing voters (68% wrong track).
  
  
• In addition, 70% of likely voters believe that Congress is not doing a good job at solving problems that are important to them, including 62% of likely voters who "strongly" believe this.
  
  

Immigration identified as top problem/Voters want resolution this year

• Likely voters are provided with a list of ten (10) issues and asked to select the one issue that would be most important when determining their vote for Congress. The top issues selected are "the situation in Iraq" (15%), "illegal immigration" (11%), "the economy and jobs" (11%), "terrorism and national security" (10%), "health care" (10%), and "moral values" (10%).
  
  
• The selection of illegal immigration is notably higher among Republicans (17%) and very conservative voters (17%).
  
  
• When asked how serious of a problem they believe illegal immigration is, a strong majority (61%) of likely voters say that it is either an extremely serious (33%) or very serious (28%) problem. Fully 75% of Republican voters believe that illegal immigration is either an extremely or very serious problem.
  
  
• When asked how important it is for Congress to resolve the issue of immigration this year, a similarly strong majority (62%) of likely voters say that it is either extremely important (33%) or very important (29%) to resolve the problem of illegal immigration this year. Fully 73% of GOP voters believe that is extremely important or very important to resolve the problem of illegal immigration this year.
  
  
• On a forced choice question, a majority (55%) of likely voters would prefer Congress to pass an immigration bill with things they do not like, such as amnesty for current illegal immigrants. In contrast, just 33% of likely voters prefer that Congress does nothing about immigration reform this year.
  
  

Senate/Bush plan has notably more support than an approach that includes enforcement plus a guest workers program

• Fully 71% of likely voters support passage of a comprehensive immigration reform plan that contains the following elements:
  
  • Provide resources to greatly increase border security,
  • Impose much tougher penalties on employers who hire illegal workers,
  • Allow additional foreign workers to come to the United States to work for a temporary period,
  • Create a system in which illegal immigrants could come forward and register, pay a fine, and receive a temporary worker permit,
  • Provide these temporary workers with a multi-year path to earned citizenship, if they get to the end of the line and meet certain requirements like living crime free, learning English, paying taxes.
    
    
• Support for this approach is strong among Republicans (73%), Democrats (70%), and swing voters (72%) and is strong among whites (72%) and Hispanics (73%).
  
  
• Regarding political impact, 66% of voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports this type of legislation.
  
  
• In contrast, support among likely voters for an approach of enforcement plus a guest workers plan stands at only 46%. This plan is described as follows:
  
  • Tighten the borders,
  • Put tougher penalties on employers and workers who violate immigration laws,
  • Create and expanded guest worker program that allows people to work here only temporarily, and
  • Most current illegal immigration would never be eligible for citizenship.
    
    
• Regarding political impact, a plurality of likely voters (47%) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports this type of legislation.
  
  
• When a series of potential solutions are tested, a comprehensive approach like the Senate bill receives the highest level of support at 77%. This support grows to 84% when opponents are offered the option of enacting enforcement and border security first followed by implementation of a guest worker and earned legalization program. In contrast, there are much lower levels of support for doing nothing and taking a fresh look next year (49%) and for increased border security and enforcement only (44%).
  
  
• A similar trend is seen when the political impact of supporting these solutions is tested. More than seven-in-ten likely voters (73%) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a comprehensive approach like the Senate bill. This electoral supports grows to 76% when opponents of this proposal are offered a two stage implementation of this proposal with enforcement and border security first followed by the guest worker program and earned legalization.
  
  
• There are also much lower levels of electoral support for doing nothing and taking a fresh look next year (49% more likely/45% less likely) and for increased border security and enforcement only (38% more likely/58% less likely).

Hispanics more likely to have seen harsh statements on immigration/negative GOP vote impact

• While just 25% of the overall likely electorate says they have seen, read, or heard statements on immigration reform that they thought were too harsh towards immigrants or Hispanic American, 47% of Hispanics say they have had this experience.
  
  
• Among the sub-group of all voters who have had this experience, 69% say it made them less likely to support Republican candidates for Congress. Among Hispanics who have had this experience, 73% say this experience made them less likely to support GOP candidates for Congress. Overall, this represents 34% of the Hispanic likely electorate.
  
  
• Likely voters are also asked if they had any awareness of the House immigration reform legislation passed in December. While 62% of the overall likely electorate says they are aware of this legislation, 67% of Hispanics say they are aware.
  
  
• Among the sub-group of all voters aware of this legislation, a plurality (48%) says this awareness makes them less likely to support Republican candidates for Congress. Among Hispanics aware of this legislation, a strong majority (62%) say this awareness makes them less likely to support Republican candidates for Congress. Overall, this represents 41% of the Hispanic likely electorate.
  
  

Some interest in punishing Congress for no action on immigration, especially among Independents

• Overall, voters have not yet placed blame for the failure to pass immigration reform this year. A strong majority of voters (60%) say both political parties are equally to blame for the fact that no immigration reform law has been passed.
  
  
• In a similar finding from a forced choice question, 41% of likely voters say the fact that the Republican controlled Congress did not pass immigration reform this year is a sign that the party is not capable of leading. An equal number of likely voters (41%) say the fact that legislation has not passed this year is a sign the party is doing a good job of leading since they did not rush to judgment on an important issue.
  
  
• However, there is a 12-point margin for both Independents (43% not capable/31% good job) and for swing voters (46% not capable/34% good job) in believing that not passing immigration reform this year is a sign that the Republicans are not capable of leading Congress.
  
  
• Likely voters are also asked what they think their friends ad neighbors will do if Congress does not deal with the most pressing problems facing the nation. Overall, a plurality of voters (44%) selects a negative action such as voting against their current Member of Congress (31%) or not voting at all (13%).
  
  
• A majority (51%) of Independents select vote against their Member of Congress (36%) or not vote at all (15%) and a majority (50%) of swing voters also select vote against their Member of Congress (37%) or not vote at all (13%).
  
  
• Among those who selected illegal immigration as their top vote determining issue, 52% select a negative impact of either voting against their Member of Congress (42%) or not voting at all (10%).

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Endnotes

1. These findings are drawn from telephone interviews with N=1100 registered likely voters with an oversample of N=100 Hispanic voters. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is 3.1%. Responses to this survey were gathered July 9-13, 2006.