If The Freedom Caucus And Paul Ryan Agree, Here's What The New House Speaker Will Do
On Tuesday evening, House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R., Wisc.) held a press conference, in which he announced that he would indeed be willing to serve as Speaker of the House, provided that the House could unite around him, among other conditions. If Ryan and House hard-liners agree, the consequences could be significant for the nation’s policy agenda.
Ryan’s four conditions
At the press conference, Ryan said that he would agree to stand for Speaker if members would agree to four “requests…by the end of the week.” First, that Republicans “move from being an opposition party to a proposition party.” Second, that Republicans “update our House rules so that everyone can be a more effective representative [including] fixes that ensure we don’t experience constant leadership challenges and crises.”
Third, Republicans must “unify now,” i.e., by all factions—from the moderate Tuesday Caucus to the hard-line Freedom Caucus—uniting behind one Speaker. Fourth, that Ryan is able to forego fundraising travel to spend more time with his family.
“Republicans will be better off if they figure out how to include as many people as possible in the legislative process. It’s a rule of politics: the more you listen to people, the more likely they are to listen to you.”
Not that long ago, the Speaker of the House was a singular political prize, one that politicians spent a lifetime striving to achieve. For Ryan, that hasn’t been the case, hence Tuesday’s unusual press conference. It led to an entertaining hashtag thread on Twitter, #moreReasonableSpeakerConditions.
Process reforms could make a difference
One of Ryan’s key conditions is that the House change the rules so that motions to “vacate the chair”—to depose the Speaker—aren’t possible outside of the initial vote for House leadership positions at the beginning of each two-year Congress. That would strengthen his position, and allow him to carry out the House’s business without being constantly under the kinds of threats that led current Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) to announce his resignation.
But Ryan may also be amenable to other rule changes, ones that would make legislating less top-down and more entrepreneurial. This has been a significant priority for the House Freedom Caucus, which complains that it can’t get votes for legislation its members support, unless leadership supports it too.
Indeed, before Kevin McCarthy dropped out of the Speaker’s race, the Freedom Caucus had demanded that he fill out a questionnaire aimed at decentralizing the legislative process.
On the merits, reasonable decentralizing reforms could actually make the House function more smoothly. Backbenchers who now lodge protest votes out of frustration could have a stake in a legislative process that works, because their own bills could get passed. In The Federalist, Sen. Mike Lee (R., Utah) made this very case, that an “open-source” Congress might produce better legislation than the one we have now.
It remains to be seen whether Sen. Lee is right. But what is clear is that the current model isn’t working. Thanks to the internet, cable TV, redistricting, and outside groups, backbenchers today have a far stronger political platform than they once did, but their legislative influence has stayed roughly the same. That’s not a stable situation. Republicans will be better off if they figure out how to include as many people as possible in the legislative process. It’s a rule of politics: the more you listen to people, the more likely they are to listen to you.
What policy will—and won’t—look like under Speaker Ryan
Ryan has reportedly said that he won’t bring up immigration reform for the remainder of this Congress. That’s a sensible move, given that there is pretty much no way for Republicans to internally agree on a path forward for reform without a Republican President at the helm.
But a Paul Ryan-led House could work harder to put forth a replacement to Obamacare, and work with the Senate to send meaningful entitlement reform to the President’s desk. Ryan has in fact been working on an Obamacare replacement plan for some time, and has reached across the aisle to propose bipartisan Medicare reforms with Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D.).
Ryan has also proposed a comprehensive overhaul of federal anti-poverty programs, and was on his way to developing important tax reforms. Each one of these proposals would face resistance from Senate Democrats and President Obama, but Ryan is uniquely capable of striking deals that move the ball down the field.
I feel for Paul Ryan. He knows there’s a good chance that his term as Speaker could go down in flames. But he also has an opportunity: to show that Republicans can govern in the political environment of the internet age. As Ronald Reagan might have advised him: If not him, who? If not now, when?
This piece originally appeared in Forbes.com