Civic Report No. 9  October 1999

Table 2: Variances Under Different Assumptions*

First Line - $2,500 Full or Community Targeted Voucher
[Second Line - $5,000 Community Targeted Voucher]

Calibrated Base Model (4.2) Curriculum Targeting (5.1) Competition & Bureaucracy (5.2) Info/Monitor (5.3)   No Voucher Base Model Private Schools All Schools W/in Dist. W/in & Across Dist. Parental Input Across Public School Students                Per Pupil ($) 1.0 0.97 [0.88] 0.96 [0.61] 0.97 [0.70] 0.97 [0.87] 0.98 [0.92] 0.96 [0.85]  Household Income ($) 1.0 0.91 [0.90] 0.89 [0.68] 0.92 [0.73] 0.93 [0.89] 0.95 [0.91] 0.93 [0.92]  Child Ability 1.0 0.72 [0.67] 0.78 [0.56] 0.71 [0.53] 0.73 [0.70] 0.74 [0.70] 0.75 [0.70]  School Quality** 1.0 0.88 [0.81] 0.94 [0.65] 0.69 [0.51] 0.72 [0.64] 0.91 [0.84] 0.71 [0.67] Across all Students***                Per Pupil ($) 1.0 0.94 [0.90] 0.93 [0.81] 0.94 [0.83] 0.94 [0.88] 0.95 [0.89] 0.94 [0.91]  Household Income ($) 1.0 1.32 [1.49] 1.43 [1.53] 1.31 [1.47] 1.33 [1.47] 1.24 [1.35] 1.38 [1.50]  Child Ability 1.0 1.18 [1.23] 1.24 [1.41] 1.19 [1.31] 1.17 [1.20] 1.15 [1.17] 1.21 [1.26]  School Quality** 1.0 0.99 [0.96] 1.05 [1.06] 0.87 [0.86] 0.82 [0.78] 0.91 [0.85] 0.88 [0.86] Across School Districts                Household Income 1.0 0.71 [0.65] 0.67 [0.60] 0.70 [0.62] 0.71 [0.64] 0.74 [0.69] 0.68 [0.62]  Property Values 1.0 0.61 [0.55] 0.56 [0.49] 0.61 [0.53] 0.59 [0.51] 0.64 [0.58] 0.59 [0.52]

* Note that, in order to ease interpretation, these variance values are scaled in various ways to equal one for the base case of no vouchers. Our emphasis here is therefore not on absolute but rather on relative magnitudes across columns.

** School quality arises endogenously from the combination of per pupil spending, per pupil household income, and average child ability in the school.

*** Note that "all students" here refers to all students that are initially in the public school system
before the introduction of vouchers.

[table 1] [table 2]