Civic Report
No. 35 March 2003

Table 2: The Contribution of Welfare Reform, Changes in Unemployment, and the EITC to the Increase in Work Participation of Single Mothers   Waiver Period (Before TANF): Jul–Dec, 1993–Jan–Jun, 1996 TANF Period: Mar–Aug, 1996–Jul–Dec, 2001 Actual change in the percent employed (in percentage points) 4.45 8.63 Inferred share of the change in the percent employed contributed by:     (1)  Welfare policy 1) 2.3% 43.7% (2)  Change in unemployment 25.0% 9.3% (3)  Increase in EITC maximum credit for one and two child families 0.1% 0.0% 1) Welfare policy in the waiver period refers to the implementation of a major waiver by states, which implemented such waivers at different times. Although TANF was enacted in August 1996, it was implemented in different states at different times, starting in September 1996 and ending in January 1998. Thus welfare policy in the second period is largely the effect of TANF, although the termination of waivers is incorporated. Note: The contributions of welfare reform, the change in unemployment and the EITC to the increase in the percent employed among single mothers are estimated based on regression coefficients that measure the effect of each of these factors on the percent employed and the changes in the proportion of single mothers exposed to the variable. See text for additional explanation. The basic data source for the regression results is the CPS micro data files for the Outgoing Rotation Groups (ORG), monthly data for the period 1984–2001. The inferred shares do not sum to 100 because factors other than those shown also contribute to the outcomes.

Table 3: Hours Worked During the Year and Annual Earnings of Single Mothers by Welfare Status, 1988/89, 1995/96 and 1999/2000   1988/1989 1995/1996 1999/2000 Change: 1995/96–1999/00 All single mothers Percent received any welfare benefits 31.3% 27.8% 14.2% -13.6 percentage pt. Percent employed 68.4% 72.0% 81.3% 9.3 percentage pt. Among those who worked 1):         Hours worked during the year 1,674 1,696 1,749 3.1% Annual total earnings (2001 dollars) $19,709 $19,383 $21,403 10.4%           Welfare Recipients:         Percent employed 30.5% 38.5% 52.6% 14.1 percentage pt. Among those who worked 1):         Hours worked during the year 911 1,018 1,095 7.6% Annual total earnings (2001 dollars) $6,278 $6,787 $8,036 18.4%           Received No Welfare:         Percent employed 85.6% 84.8%  86.0% 1.2 percentage pt. Among those who worked 1):         Hours worked during the year 1,798 1,814 1,815 0.1% Annual total earnings (2001 dollars) $21,891 $21,582 $22,750 5.4% 1) Single mother workers are restricted to those who reported positive earnings and those with more than 4 hours worked a week and more than 4 weeks worked during the year. Earnings include self-employment and wage and salary income. Source: Calculated from March CPS, micro data for single mothers ages 18–44 with own children under 18.

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