Civic Report
No. 35 March 2003

Table 1: Tracking the Poverty Status of Cohorts of Welfare Leavers (Under Three Definitions of Poverty) Using SIPP Panel Data in the Months Before and After Leaving Welfare, 1996–1999     Months Before Exit  Six- month period on welfare before exit Months After Exit   Sample Size 37–42 mths 31–36 mths 25–30 mths 19–24 mths 13–18 mths 7–12 mths First 6 mths 7–12 mths 13–18 mths 19–24 mths 25–30 mths 31–36 mths 37-42 mths A: Percent in Poverty based on FAMILY CASH INCOME (excluding EITC) Cohort leaving welfare after:                               first 6 mths in 1996 121             57.9 51.4 51.7 44.8 44.8 35.0 32.7 31.8 second 6 mths in 1996 98           69.8 65.8 54.2 61.3 48.2 50.4 50.2 48.0   first 6 mths in 1997 150         72.0 70.0 67.0 55.9 46.4 53.3 46.4 45.6      second 6 mths in 1997 80       67.0 76.4 70.7 64.3 64.9 64.6 57.5 55.2        first 6 mths in 1998 140     60.4 57.6 62.5 63.9 61.9 54.7 51.6 51.9          second 6 mths in 1998 80   72.6 68.2 74.9 76.2 77.2 73.6 63.4 57.1             first 6 mths in 1999 100 62.7 67.8 61.9 65.1 68.2 67.8 60.7 51.8                B: Percent in Poverty based on FAMILY CASH INCOME (including EITC) 1) Cohort leaving welfare after:                               first 6 mths in 1996 121             55.8 42.4 38.6 39.0 40.8 27.2 29.0 24.9 second 6 mths in 1996 98           67.4 60.3 44.3 53.0 45.2 43.4 40.5 41.5   first 6 mths in 1997 150         64.6 65.4 62.1 47.7 40.5 45.0 38.7 35.6      second 6 mths in 1997 80       66.4 71.0 68.1 57.9 55.1 54.9 49.1 38.8        first 6 mths in 1998 140     57.8 50.3 59.7 58.0 56.7 52.0 46.0 43.1          second 6 mths in 1998 80   62.6 66.2 69.2 65.8 68.4 62.8 52.6 49.1             first 6 mths in 1999 100 57.0 62.7 58.9 61.0 61.8 62.4 52.9 46.7                C: Percent in Poverty based on HOUSEHOLD CASH AND NON-CASH INCOME 2) Cohort leaving welfare after:                               first 6 mths in 1996 121             46.1 30.4 31.2 33.5 28.8 18.8 23.8 19.2 second 6 mths in 1996   98           58.2 43.5 32.0 39.7 35.3 36.5 33.3 33.1   first 6 mths in 1997 150         53.6 52.3 43.7 35.4 30.1 35.6 31.4 28.6      second 6 mths in 1997   80       57.5 58.6 55.6 46.7 45.4 46.6 46.6 32.8        first 6 mths in 1998 140     46.9 39.1 47.3 45.9 45.6 41.2 39.3 38.3          second 6 mths in 1998   80   52.3 54.0 51.9 54.8 55.4 43.3 47.7 42.0             first 6 mths in 1999 100 43.2 43.9 43.9 53.8 50.5 50.8 42.6 38.7             Note: Population restricted to women ages 20–55 (last panel interview) with children under age 18 (in 6-month period before exit) and who did not attrite from the sample in any of the 12 waves. Welfare leavers are those who are observed to be on welfare for at least 4 months out of a 6-month period (the 6-month period on welfare before exit) followed by an 8-month period with at least 4 months off welfare. Some leavers return to welfare in later periods and they are included in the post-exit months. Similarly, the poverty statistics for the 6–42 months prior to exit include all of those in the cohort in that earlier period, whether or not they were on welfare in a particular 6-month period. 1) Includes estimated EITC, excludes all non-cash benefits. 2) Total household cash income plus the value of non-cash benefits and including our estimate of the EITC. Non-cash income aggregates dollar values for food stamps, WIC, and energy assistance. The income of a male partner, if present, is included in household’s income. Information was not available on taxes paid and is excluded.

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