Civic Report No. 17 July 2001


Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of Welfare Reform on Welfare and Work

Table 5: The Contribution of Welfare Reform and the Decline in Unemployment to the Decline in Welfare Participation and the Increase in Work Participation of Single Mothers by Education

Waiver Period (1992–1996) 1)

TANF Period (1996–1999) 2)

High School Dropout

High School Graduate

One Year of College or More

High School Dropout

High School Graduate

One Year of College or More

Actual Change in Welfare Participation (in percentage points) 3)

-11.3

 -8.5

-2.2

-15.1

-10.6

-9.2

Inferred share of the change in welfare participation contributed by: 4)

(1) Welfare reform policy

0.1%

5.5%

96.0%

36.5%

45.2%

75.0%

(2) Decline in unemployment

23.7%

33.0%

62.3%

19.5%

17.0%

14.7%

Actual Change in Work Participation (in percentage points) 5)

7.5

8.3

4.9

13.3

6.3

4.7

Inferred share of the change in work participation contributed by: 4)

(1) Welfare reform policy

11.9%

12.7%

61.1%

40.1%

71.2%

96.9%

(2) Decline in unemployment

34.7%

42.5%

43.1%

16.0%

35.3%

-1.2%

Note: The contribution of welfare reform and unemployment to changes in work and welfare participation generally do not sum to 100 percent because many other factors also contribute to the outcomes and they are not shown in the table. If the net effect of those other factors is positive, welfare and unemployment will sum to less than 100 percent, but if the net effect is negative they will sum to more than 100 percent.

1) The waiver period is March 1993–March 1997 for employment participation.
2) The TANF period is March 1997–March 2000 for employment participation.
3) The welfare participation rate is the percentage of single mothers in the relevant age group who received welfare in the stated year.
4) The contributions of waiver, TANF, and the decline in unemployment are estimated based on the relevant regression coefficients and the changes in the proportion of women exposed to the variable. See the text for an explanation.
5) The employment participation rate is the percentage of single mothers in the relevant age group who were employed in the week prior to the March CPS Survey.

[figure 1] [figure 2] [figure 3] [figure 4] [figure 5] [figure 6]
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figure 7] [figure 8] [figure 9] [figure 10] [figure 11] [figure 12]
[
table 1] [table 2] [table 3] [table 4] [table 5] [table 6]
[
table A-1] [table A-2] [appendix B] [figure B-1]
[
appendix C] [table C-1] [table C-2]