Civic Report No. 17 July 2001


Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of Welfare Reform on Welfare and Work

Table 2: Differences by Education in the Estimated Impact of Welfare Reform on the Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Welfare and the Percentage Who Work

High School Dropout

High School Graduate

One Year of College or More

Percentage Point Change in Welfare Participation Due to Implementation of:

Waiver

1.06

0.20

-2.49 **

TANF

-5.50 **

-5.23 ***

-9.09 ***

Average percent of single mothers on welfare over the years 1982-1999

52.08

28.77

17.59

Percentage Point Change in Work Participation Due to Implementation of:

Waiver

0.64

0.98

4.45 ***

TANF

6.25 **

5.58 ***

7.62 ***

Average percent of single mothers employed in March of the years 1983–2000

34.38

63.28

75.99

Note: The percentage point changes in welfare and work participation are based on regression coefficients (multiplied by 100). Each set of coefficients is derived from a separate regression holding constant each woman’s age, marital status, schooling, number of children, race, MSA residence, and state characteristics (AFDC benefit levels, wage rates, unemployment rates) as well as state fixed effects, trend variables, and state and trend interactions. See the text for a detailed explanation. The data are from micro data files of the March Current Population Survey, 1983–2000. Welfare participation is measured for the prior calendar year. The work participation rate is the percent of single mothers employed in the week prior to the March CPS survey week.

*statistically significant at the 10% level.
**statistically significant at the 5% level.
***statistically significant at the 1% level.

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