It's hard to believe, but Amtrak's Acela is old. Way back in the year 2000, the U.S. government did something that would become an unusual occurrence in the new millennium: launch an infrastructure success. Yet this victory isn't the triumph that it could have been — and it may even turn into defeat.
“Amtrak wants to increase speeds by improving its tracks — but for now, truly high-speed service remains, in its word, a "vision.”
Last month, Amtrak, the federally owned railway, ordered new trains for the Acela route — because the trains Acela riders still think of as "new" will soon be two decades old. The trains, plus some station improvements to go with them, will cost $2.45 billion.
The most important thing about the new trains is that there will be 40 percent more of them, and more seats, too, in each train, allowing Amtrak to increase service. The ride will be smoother, too.
There's reason to believe people will take advantage of the increased service. In 1999, Amtrak expected that Acela passengers would take 15 percent of the northeast corridor's travel market, nearly 70 percent of the Washington-to-New-York travel, and more than half of the Boston-to-New-York route.
That's not because service is cheap: A round-trip ticket easily tops $400. It's worth the price because it's faster and nicer for business travelers. And Acela helps people who don't use it: It alleviates airport and highway crowding.
And yet, it's hard to call Acela a blockbuster achievement.
In 1999, the Associated Press reported that "the new trains will travel between Boston and New York in three hours ... and from New York to Washington in as little as two hours."
Nope. It takes two hours and 53 minutes to get to Washington, and 3 hours and 40 minutes to get to Boston.
In Europe, a traveler can go from London to Paris — just over 300 miles, compared to the 212-mile trip to New York — in just over two hours.
And Acela's high price isn't something to brag about. It costs under $200 for a round trip between Paris and London — meaning that families without expense accounts can make the trip quickly.
Amtrak wants to increase speeds by improving its tracks — but for now, truly high-speed service remains, in its word, a "vision."
The more likely possibility is that Acela riders see dis-improvements as they board the brand-new trains.
People travelling from Washington to New York must go under the Hudson River between New Jersey and New York. Amtrak's Hudson tunnel is 106 years old and suffering extensive deterioration, including from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
“Amtrak expects New York and New Jersey, whose commuter railroads run most of the trains under the Hudson, to foot half the cost. But neither state has any idea how each one would come up with $5 billion.”
Amtrak must build a new tunnel so it can repair the old one.
But Amtrak has only $86.5 million to fund this $20 billion project. "It remains to be seen whether Amtrak would have sufficient northeast corridor revenues to ... fund major infrastructure projects," the federal government's General Accounting Office said in January.
Though Amtrak says that it can pay for its new trains out of higher revenues from more customers, that still means the railroad has less money left over for the tunnel project — and so will have to get more out of Congress.
Worse, Amtrak expects New York and New Jersey, whose commuter railroads run most of the trains under the Hudson, to foot half the cost.
But neither state has any idea how each one would come up with $5 billion. New Jersey is in crisis; the state is so broke that it cannot make payments to its pension funds or do basic road work.
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have said they want to increase infrastructure spending. Clinton wants to double Washington's current $60 billion in annual spending, and Trump wants to double that.
The next president will also have to figure out how an essentially insolvent New Jersey will pay its share.
So when Acela riders pass through the Garden State, they should give a thought to how new trains won't be of much use if there's no tunnel through which to ride.
This piece originally appeared in the Washington Examiner
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Nicole Gelinas is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and contributing editor at City Journal. Follow her on Twitter here.
This piece originally appeared in Washington Examiner