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Commentary By Howard Husock, Alex Armlovich

The affordable housing the mayor refuses to see

Cities, Cities, Culture New York City, Housing, Poverty & Welfare

Mayor de Blasio seems determined to be remembered for his construction of new “affordable” housing throughout the city.

And he’s been quite specific in his Housing New York plan: He wants 8,000 new units a year that are affordable for households earning between roughly $30,000 and $128,000 a year. But the mayor’s big bet on affordable housing is based on a dubious — and costly — premise: that the private housing market simply does not, and probably cannot, provide housing for those of modest means.

“Based on the federal Census survey of New York housing prices and vacancies, we determined that there are more than 18,000 vacant family-size units (two or more bedrooms) available in neighborhoods at less than $1,550 per month”

De Blasio might be surprised, then, to learn that the much-maligned private market is offering plenty of rental housing at prices equivalent to what the city would charge in new, subsidized units — but since city affordable housing costs New York either property-tax abatements or other cash subsidies, the private market’s affordable housing is cheaper. For everyone.

For our recent Manhattan Institute study, we set out to answer the question: Is there still “naturally occurring affordable housing” — or NOAH — in New York?

The answer is yes. Based on the federal Census survey of New York housing prices and vacancies, we determined that there are more than 18,000 vacant family-size units (two or more bedrooms) available in neighborhoods at less than $1,550 per month — affordable to those making less than $62,160, equal to 80 percent of the area’s median income.

We found that unsubsidized affordable housing — including studios and one- and two-bedroom units — can be found in 42 of 55 city neighborhoods. Based on 2014 Census data, there were, citywide, 49,000 vacant units that would be considered affordable. Those included 8,845 units of all sizes that would be considered affordable for households with annual income at or below 50 percent of New York’s area median income ($30,250 for singles, $38,850 for three people).

Do such apartments really exist today? Data provided to us by the online real-estate listings service StreetEasy, which specializes mainly in Manhattan and Brooklyn listings, make clear they do. That data show some 15,000 NOAH units of all sizes, available throughout 2014 to those earning the area median income or less, in such neighborhoods as Bedford-Stuyvesant, Bushwick, East and Central Harlem and Astoria.

Nor do rent-regulation laws explain most of the lower-priced housing. Our neighborhood analysis looked at occupied units that aren’t rent-stabilized and found dozens of affordable neighborhoods. But even some rent-stabilized units are actually “naturally affordable”; many are offered at prices below the legal maximum.

Individually subsidized apartments help a fortunate few who hit what is literally called the housing lottery, but at the expense of the resources lower-income households need: safe and clean streets, rail-quality bus service and well-maintained parks and libraries. Not even counting billions in off-budget tax exemptions, the mayor is explicitly budgeting roughly $10 billion for his subsidized housing plan. That could pay for a lot of good teachers.

“The presence of unsubsidized affordable housing suggests natural market forces can indeed supply the very thing de Blasio wants to spend billions to create.”

The city’s existing unsubsidized housing suggests that affordable housing doesn’t depend on initiatives like de Blasio’s. When a city becomes desirable, it’s simple arithmetic that it can only add residents, without displacing existing residents, by adding housing.

And while no one, the mayor included, could rightly identify the “correct” amount of affordable housing for the city’s over 3 million offerings, the presence of unsubsidized affordable housing suggests natural market forces can indeed supply the very thing de Blasio wants to spend billions to create.

Of course, if your goal is to ensure that all neighborhoods contain a range of income groups — and believe it’s the city’s role to engage in this sort of social engineering — then de Blasio’s initiative makes sense.

But if you think the city’s primary job is to keep neighborhoods safe, maintain the parks and provide support for vital public transportation, all these NOAH units suggest the city ought to focus on both spreading the word about existing affordable housing — perhaps even partnering with an online service to expand listings coverage in cheaper neighborhoods — and accommodating housing demand through zoning changes and improved city services.

Cutting a ribbon on a cleaner street or a better bus may not make the mayor feel like a champion of the poor. But he’d help more New Yorkers by providing the best possible city services to all neighborhoods, rich and poor alike.

This piece originally appeared in New York Post